Is Labour Now Vulnerable in Newham?
On 24th November, Mehmood Mirza announced that Newham Independents would be seeking candidates to fight the local elections in June 2026. This may sound a little premature, particularly as Labour and the other parties have lately tended to select their candidates after the election is announced. But the momentum (no pun intended) is with the Independents and they are clearly intent on keeping up the pressure.
The Independents have begun with an appeal for candidates for the wards near to Plaistow North, in Plashet and Green St West, (reproduced below). The resignation of Cllr Zuber Gulamussen and his subsequent adoption by the Independent Group has signalled that they will support current Labour councillors who are willing to jump ship and join them.
They appear to be seeking to go beyond the largely communitarian appeal they generated in Plaistow North. This would accord with Mirza’s philosophy, which lies at the more radical and socialist end of the spectrum, (yes, despite his being an independently wealthy landlord, he’s a dedicated Corbynista). Time will tell whether Newham Independents retain a purely local focus, or perhaps link with the likes of Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbot, (and even Lutfer Rahman and Aspire) to create a new London-left-opposition to Labour. “Corbyn for Mayor of London”?
In east London, it would build upon support within the Muslim community, but to generate support more broadly it will have to go beyond the communitarian politics of Newham and Tower Hamlets. They will probably pick up the votes of Momentum supporters disgruntled with Starmer, and possibly absorb the small number of voters supporting TUSC; but without a broader appeal, they are unlikely to do more than disturb the purely local electoral landscape.
That does mean however, that several wards in Newham are vulnerable. We suggested four wards were vulnerable after the Boleyn victory for Mirza. In the wake of the support for the Independents in Plaistow North, we have revised this to nine wards, basically the north-east of the borough.
If Mirza’s team can recruit energetic (and capable?) candidates and they put in the work over the next two years, they might create a bit of a shock to Labour.
We do not expect that the Mirza team will be the majority in 2026. If they take 20 seats, (no small ask), there are still over 40 seats where Labour is likely to win.
Nor do we know which of the sitting Labour councillors will make a fight of it; which will quit politics; and how many will jump ship. If Labour can get its act together, if they can reorganise and re-energise themselves, then no-one should see 2026 as a forgone conclusion. But it is clear that Labour has a fight on its hands in a way that they haven’t had in decades.
Labour is clearly vulnerable in those wards with a large percentage of Muslim voters. However, there are also wards where the loss of the ‘Muslim vote’ might not give victory to an independent, but might take enough votes, to make Labour vulnerable to a third party. Psephologists in the local parties will be consulting their calculators and election tables.
Labour also has a structural problem. The party is moribund. Since the suspension of the two constituency parties the branches have not met. Members were not even consulted on the choice of mayoral or council candidates. They were almost totally absent in the byelection campaign.
In addition, the crop of current councillors did not necessarily bring with them a network of contacts amongst party activists nor a track record of campaigning. They have shown themselves to be largely unenthusiastic about supporting the new candidate in Plaistow North.
The question for Labour is a difficult one. Are they willing to release the shackles on the local party with a view to trying to generate some energy? And, if so, when? And are they confident about their members; how many are likely to go off-script? Those who watch the internal squabbles of the Labour Group report that the issue of antisemitism inside Labour is far from dead.
Key to all of this, is if, and when the members be given a choice in the selection of candidate for mayor?
On top of the problems in the north east, the Greens have tasted victory in Stratford (Olympic Park). If they were to put in the effort now, in wards from Stratford and West Ham to Forest Gate North, they could reap the electoral dividends, but it is not clear that they have the manpower, err, person power to sustain campaigns in five wards over 30 months. They might however gain some impetus from the general election campaign in 2024.
In a way that would have been unimaginable five years ago, Labour is looking vulnerable in Newham. For the first time in the memory of many local activists, it is conceivable (not necessarily likely), but possible, that Labour would struggle to get an overall majority in the 2026 election.
If the Greens and the Independents make inroads into the votes for council, how long before the parliamentary seats become vulnerable. Mehmood Mirza is unlikely to garner sufficient votes across the borough to become mayor, but what if he stood for a seat in Westminster? If he chose wisely, the electoral arithmetic might work in his favour.
Does Mayor Fiaz, we wonder, ever reflect upon her decision to join with Mehmood Mirza in her efforts to win the Labour selection for mayor, and on her role in leading Newham Labour into its present state?