The Runners and Riders Have been Announced
Courtesy of ‘whocanIvotefor’ we can now see a full slate of candidates for the Plaistow South byelection.
This is going to be another interesting byelection. Sources tell us that Labour’s campaign is being headed by sitting mayor, Rokhsana Fiaz. This came as something of a surprise. We anticipated that the 2026 candidate, Forhad Hussain would begin to take control of the local party apparatus and begin to assert his own agenda and leadership of the majority group. But apparently not.
There seem to be some rumblings in the Labour camp. Not everyone is confident of a Labour win in September. Across the country, Labour has plummeted in local elections.
A poll for More In Common found the following about voting intentions nationally.
This trend seems to be backed up by London byelection results.
In Haringey in the 2022 council elections, the voters of St Ann’s Ward returned two Labour candidates with 1188 and 1050 votes respectively. The Greens made an impressive showing, taking 735 and 938 votes. In the byelection of April 2025 the Greens improved their vote taking 1059 votes. The Labour vote slumped to 589.
More recently in West Hamstead, on 28th August the Lib Dems overturned a Labour majority of around 230 to win the seat with a majority of over 700. The Lib Dems polled 1172 while Labour took only 458.
Voters seem to be choosing the best local alternative to Labour. This may simply be a protest from which voters will return at the general election, but at the council level Labour is taking a hammering. It is not the Tories who are benefiting.
In this analysis by Mark Pack, a Lib Dem peer and pollster, we see that the Tories have lost 12 seats, but Labour has lost 22.
The biggest beneficiary has been Reform. In the non-metropolitan elections in 2025, Reform were the clear winners as this chart from the BBC shows. They have clearly profited from disaffection with both Conservatives and Labour.
Demographics suggest that Newham is not a target council for Reform, but they might pick up some council seats.
What will be interesting is how the Tories stand up to a challenge from Reform, who seem to be showing considerably more interest in campaigning than the Tories who consistently lost votes under the Wales administration.
More recent results in the ward suggest that the Conservative vote hovers between 350-550. On September 19th Amatuer psephologists will be sifting through the tealeaves to determine how many votes Reform take from Labour and how many from the Tories.
2014:
2018:
2022
The elephant in the room is the changing demographics of the ward, a change that is seeing Newham Independents quietly confident. On this occasion, in a change from the Pakistani dominated slate, they have chosen a Bangladeshi candidate, and this is a change that may have been influenced by the demographic changes.
It is too early to call, but this does seem like a two-horse race between Labour and Newham Independents. Reform may yet be a joker in the pack. If Newham Labour voters respond in the same as Labour voters have done nationally, we could see both a low turnout from Labour voters in Plaistow South and defections from Labour to Reform amongst those who cast their ballots. If this happens, the ultimate beneficiaries are likely to be Newham Independents.